Shutterstock
One of the most surprising battleground states of the election happens to be Arizona this year. In prior years, the state has been a bastion of Republican voters. However, immigration and a shifting demographic picture in suburban areas has turned the state a deep purple.
As evidence of this, polling in the suggests that Joe Biden and Donald Trump are in a dead heat. Both are spending millions of dollars on ad buys in the state to try to sway public opinion.
Arizona is deeply divided over the two candidates. The region sees a substantial number of immigrants from south of the border. This situation has caused many right-leaning voters to prefer Donald Trump’s rhetoric regarding immigration.
On the other hand, those immigrants themselves tend to prefer Joe Biden. This demographic, paired with college-educated whites and voters who have turned 18 since the 2016 election, is driving the tight race in Arizona.
Surprisingly, a new poll shows Biden holding a narrow lead over Trump in the state. Monmouth University released the poll on Thursday.
It shows that Biden holds 48 percent of public support to Trump’s 44 percent. The poll surveyed likely voters, and Biden’s lead beats out the poll’s margin of error. Notably, the poll looked at both high-turnout scenarios and low-turnout scenarios. In a high-turnout scenario, Biden has the edge over Trump, 48 to 46 percent.
That lead narrows to a tie in a low-turnout scenario, going to 47 to 47 percent. While Trump carried Arizona in 2016, the state has since been trending to be more Democratic. In 2018, the state saw a Senate seat flip to Democrat for the first time in decades. Much of this has been driven by the shifting demographic in Maricopa County, home of the state’s most populous suburb.
Desk chair strategists love crunching these kinds of polling numbers. The story can be seen on the election map: Biden’s lead is narrow, but stubborn. Across numerous battleground states, the Democratic candidate is enjoying a slight edge over his opponent.
This has GOP strategists nervous. The Biden campaign has been outspending the Trump campaign in recent weeks, thanks to record-setting campaign fundraising.
Also of note in Arizona is a tight Senate race between Democrat Mark Kelly and Republican Martha McSally. Currently, Kelly enjoys a 50 percent approval rating to McSally’s 49 percent. Senate Republicans are defending a slim 53-47 majority, so the Senate race is of great interest on the national stage, too.
