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Two competing polls released on Monday, just before the Democratic Convention is set to begin, paint varying pictures of the presidential race. One, released by ABC News and the Washington Post, shows Biden leading Trump by an impressive margin, some twelve percentage points. A CNN poll, however, shows that margin at a much slimmer 4 points. This poll still has Biden up over the margin of error, but it’s closer than Democrats would like going in to November.
So, what’s going on with these polls? What can account for an 8-point swing in favorability? Well, political polling is a complicated process. For context, polls tend to survey around 1,000 people, and then make inferences about the general population based on the cross-section surveyed. As such, smaller irregularities in the population surveyed can cause larger shifts in the survey results than are indicative of the real world.
Survey research is a critical aspect of political science. Political scientists use a number of measures to keep survey research unbiased and scientifically accurate. However, in spite of many researchers’ best efforts, it’s possible for irregularities to occur. These irregularities can have massive repercussions, especially in tight races like pundits are expecting in November. Both Democrats and Republicans are putting huge pressure on this election.
As such, polling has been used as a weather vane in the election season running up to November 3. Polls have shown Biden soaring above Trump since earlier this year. However, the margin by which he is beating the incumbent has varied from poll to poll. CNN’s poll is the first in recent months to show the lead as narrow as 4 percentage points. Other polls taken throughout the summer have shown Biden in a similar place to the ABC/Washington Post poll, over ten points in the lead.
America is in the midst of twin disasters. On the one hand, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused untold havoc with both lives and finances. People are relying on prepaid mobile phones and cutting back on their expenses to make ends meet. Elsewhere in the country, calls for equality are led by the Black Lives Matter movement, challenging America to reckon with its past and fix its present.
This is the political climate that the country is taking with it into the 2020 election. There is a lot at stake for both parties, and many are even framing the election as a battle for the soul of the country.
