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More than one-third of economists predict that the US will enter a recession in 2021. The Trump administration, however, has repeatedly dismissed these fears.
The National Association for Business Economics recently surveyed 226 economists and, on Monday, released the results. The survey revealed that fewer economists expect a recession to begin as early as this year.
However, there’s been an increase in those who believe a recession will hit the U.S. in 2021.
These new results show that 34% of those surveyed believe the country will suffer a recession in 2021. That’s an increase of 25% compared to how many believed so earlier this year in February.
An even larger number of economists predict a recession will occur next year. 38% think it will happen in 2020, though that number is down from February. Previously, 42% were predicting a 2020 recession.
Only 2% of economists believe it will happen this year, which is a decrease from February’s survey results. Previously, 10% believed it could happen in 2019. Those who believe a recession could occur later than 2021 is now 14% – up from 11% in February’s survey results.
On Sunday, Donald Trump told reporters, “I don’t see a recession.”
The president, of course, has touted the country’s economy as a major focus of his reelection campaign.
“I’m prepared for everything,” Trump claimed. “I don’t think we’re having a recession.”
He also went on to say, “We’re doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich.” He added, “And they’re loaded up with money,” something he attributed to his “tremendous tax cut.”
What consumers, exactly, this applies to isn’t clear, though Trump’s tax cuts significantly benefited the country’s richest companies and individuals.
White House trade adviser Pete Navarro, on Sunday, said that the U.S. economy would remain strong through 2020.
He praised Trump, touting the president’s ability to “engage with the business community, labor leaders, and everybody in between.” This, he said, is “one of the things the president does beautifully.”
Some may be inclined to disagree, however, considering the current predictions coming from the NABE survey.
NABE has been around since 1959 and is a well-respected “professional association for business economists.” Currently led by KPMG Chief Economist Constance Hinter, previous presidents include Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
