In the early part of 2020, it looked like incumbent Donald Trump was on track to win reelection in November. He weathered an impeachment trial in the Senate, the economy was roaring, and Democratic voters were split over the primary. However, a series of national crises have sent Trump’s chances of reelection tumbling, with approval polls suggesting the President is at an historic deficit.
Trump’s likely November opponent is former vice president Joe Biden, who won the majority of delegates in the Democratic Primary. At the Democratic Convention in August, Biden will likely be nominated as the DNC’s candidate for presidency. In head-to-head polls, Biden has been leading Trump for the past two months, with his lead growing greater by the day.
A new Monmouth University Poll released over the weekend shows Biden leading Trump 53% to 41%. National polls across the board show the incumbent behind by some eleven points on average, an historic deficit for an incumbent going into midsummer. Political scientists have pointed out that historically, polls from early July often have a high correlation with November election results.
In the modern era, November results differ from July polls by an average of seven points. Now, let’s assume that holds true for 2020. Even if the election swings seven points back in Trump’s favor, he’d still be at a four-point deficit to Biden. That’s enough to lose the White House.
What’s more, in modern elections, no challenger to an incumbent has polled above 50% in July and not won in November. Biden has serious momentum going into November, propelled by his response to the pandemic and recent Black Lives Matter protests. In contrast to the president, Biden has struck a sympathetic note with likely voters.
In 2016, polls indicated Hillary Clinton was the likely winner of the election. Of course, there were some polling inaccuracies at play: those polls under-sampled white people with no college education.
Another factor in 2016 was low turnout from younger voters. While young voters prefer to apply for a checking account online, send money online, and engage with friends online, they were hesitant to appear in person for a candidate they had little passion for.
This isn’t to say the election is a foregone conclusion. Far from it. However, it does suggest that those placing bets would be wise to place them on Biden, if history is any indicator of future outcomes.
