Dr. Anthony Fauci, the US’s leading infectious disease expert and head of the White House coronavirus task force, has commented on updated COVID-19 death tolls. In recent days, new information has helped medical experts create more accurate models of the likely death toll in the US.
According to Dr. Fauci, new modelling shows that the US death toll “looks more like 60,000 than the 100,000 to 200,000” that some modelling had predicted earlier. This new modelling was aided by information from countries like Italy and Spain, who have also suffered massive numbers of deaths due to the novel coronavirus.
Dr. Fauci has noted that these numbers indicate that social distancing measures are working. While restaurants, bars and stores are closed, and millions of people are stuck at home, the numbers don’t lie. We’re seeing the curve flatten, and deaths are trending well under expectations. This is nothing short of extraordinary, as the health care for senior citizens and others in the country has been overwhelmed by the virus.
This doesn’t mean, however, that we should end the restrictions right away. Doing so could risk reinfection and another spike in cases. That would not only endanger public health, but would make all the hardship of the last month for nothing. Instead, it is important to see the measures through, at least until May.
Dr. Fauci also noted that an antibody test is on the way. This test will allow healthcare workers to determine if someone has been infected with the virus already by the presence of antibodies that can destroy it. It is likely that people who have been infected already are more resistant to catching and subsequently spreading COVID-19.
“The antibody tests are developed, there are several out there,” Dr. Fauci stated. “We are told by the people, the companies that make them, that very soon — when they say soon, they’re talking days to weeks — that we’d be able to have a large number of these tests available.”
Such tests could be invaluable in opening the country back up from restrictions. People would be able to prove that they have antibodies for the virus. This could eventually mean they could access normal facilities without the need for social distancing measures.
However, Dr. Fauci also cautioned that we shouldn’t jump the gun.
“I think the American public have done a really terrific job of just buckling down and doing those physical separation and adhering to those guidelines,” Dr. Fauci noted. “But having said that, we better be careful that we don’t say, ‘OK, we’re doing so well we could pull back.’ We still have to put our foot on the accelerator when it comes to the mitigation and the physical separation.”
