Following months of assertions to the contrary, Theresa May has confirmed that she’ll hear a vote for a delay of Brexit on March 13th. This is, of course, only if a modified version of May’s Brexit deal is shot down (again) on Marth 12th.
The alternative? A disastrous no-deal exit from the EU, which could severely hit the UK’s economy.
The UK held a referendum in 2016 over whether to stay in the EU or to leave. The simple “remain/leave” dichotomy undermined how complex of a process it has been for the European nation to leave the union. The thorny issue of how, exactly, the UK will leave the EU is still being debated by members of the UK parliament.
Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal, which included “backstop” plans for the Northern Ireland border, was shot down spectacularly the first time it was before Parliament. Ministers from both sides of the debate have been pushing off any deal.
Pro-Brexit ministers think that England shouldn’t give the EU any negotiating power. Anti-Brexit lawmakers simply won’t let a deal go through in order to force a second referendum or to simply reverse the first one.
The pro-Brexit element of May’s government has decried this call for a delay in leaving the EU as of May caving to the opposition. The anti-Brexit elements of Parliament are thrilled, and this likely means that the March 12th vote on a Brexit deal is destined to fail.
This all comes quite close to the deadline for the country to leave the EU. According to the original referendum, March 29th is the day the UK leaves the EU. If the country were to leave with no trade deal, it would likely disrupt the UK’s economy tremendously.
Many foreign commentators, this one included, have noted that all outcomes seem (paradoxically) unlikely. The UK leaving with no deal is unthinkably chaotic, while the needle to be threaded for a deal to please all members of Parliament is unbelievably small. Likewise, the outcry from pro-Brexit voters should the referendum be reversed makes such a course unlikely.
Even still, just delaying the exit date is being viewed as a major loss for the pro-Brexit Parliament members. The conflux of all of these unlikely outcomes is still up in the air. We’ll see, on March 12th and 13th, how these votes fall. The UK’s economic future is hanging in the balance.
