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Two dead satellites in a low-earth orbit are on track to pass very closely today. There is a chance they could collide above the US, resulting in a spray of debris in two directions from their impact. That debris field would be a huge problem, but not for the reasons you think.
The two satellites are both dead and serve no official, practical use. One of the objects is IRAS (13777), a space telescope that was launched in 1983, and the other is GGSE-4 (2828), a leftover from a weapons test launched in 1967. Unfortunately, neither satellite can be controlled from the ground anymore.
While their chances of colliding are 1 in 1,000, that’s an alarming number for the space industry. When probable impacts reach odds of 1 in 10,000, people start getting nervous. This very close pass has a very high chance of becoming an impact between two hunks of metal in space going 30,000 miles per hour.
When two objects in a low-Earth orbit collide at very high speeds, both become a cloud of debris in an instant. This debris, following the laws of inertia, then carries off along a path similar to the trajectory of the orbit the satellite itself followed.
This, in turn, means that both satellites become something of a shotgun: the debris field that erupts in two directions from their collision is a cloud of shrapnel and pieces of metal, all moving at very high speeds, all very capable of doing the same thing to other satellites.
The impact could result in a chain reaction, where the debris fields from the initial collision continue to impact other satellites, turning them into debris fields as well. Then, this process could repeat at an accelerated rate.
You might be thinking, “That’s unfortunate, but I don’t plan to go to space!”
Well, this issue affects you more than you realize. Much of the technology you use daily relies on satellites to function, such as GPS and satellite radio and TV.
Here’s hoping the IRAS and GGSE-4 satellites manage to miss each other.
