In the aftermath of the nationwide Black Lives Matter protests, public opinion polls show President Donald Trump slipping. A poll conducted by Fox News in Wisconsin showed Trump at 40% favorability, putting him below challenger Joe Biden, who is at 49%. While Biden is unpopular among younger voters, recent events have worsened Trump’s image.
Similarly, a Quinnipiac University poll shows Trump at 44% in Texas, while Biden is at 43%. While that technically has Trump in the lead, it’s a shocking upset in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat for president since 1976. This is playing out similarly in Michigan and Pennsylvania, traditionally blue states that Trump flipped in 2016. Now, the president is falling behind his challenger in these pivotal swing states.
CNN has reported that anonymous sources from within the White House are concerned about the polling for the 2020 election. Many top republican strategists are now viewing a 2020 victory as unlikely, and focusing instead on reducing the damage. As the GOP must defend some twenty-two Senate seats, some expect that democrats could seize control of the upper house.
This could be catastrophic for republicans. Democrats are expected to retain their majority in the House of Representatives this year. With Trump now appearing like a long-shot for reelection, this means republicans might be kicked out of federal power altogether. Even a narrow victory for Trump could still see the Senate flipping to Democratic control.
Top republican strategists are unsure of how to fight a senate race where the president is a divisive figure among moderates. In swing states, republicans up for reelection to the upper house have an uphill battle.
Trump himself has yet to launch into full reelection mode. Notably, his campaign has spent a little over $1 million in Arizona, Ohio and Wisconsin since the start of the year. In spite of this, he’s still flagging in the polls. However, should he ratchet up the campaigning and turn in a similar performance to 2016, he still stands a reasonable chance of winning the White House.
However, some tabulations are showing a grim picture for the incumbent. Should he lose just Texas, and win every other state he won in 2016, he would lose the election to Biden with 268 Electoral College votes. Many republican strategists are now in the divorce planning stage of their Senate calculations, figuring out what a path forward without Trump might look like.
