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As early as January, some polls showed presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading incumbent Donald Trump in approval ratings. However, as the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded, and then widespread Black Lives Matter protests dominated the summer, Trump’s approval shot down. Biden, riding an ascendant political headwind, has emerged as the clear favorite to win in November.
Now, as we enter the middle of August, polls are still showing similar momentum behind the former Vice President. One such poll released by Fox News shows Biden’s lead over Trump has remained relatively unchanged since July. This is bad news for the president: historically, candidates polling as low as Trump don’t win reelection for a second term. His current approval ratings are on-par with those of one-term presidents like George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter.
The poll, conducted from August 9 to August 12, occurred during the window that Biden announced Kamala Harris as his running mate. The poll shows that, among registered voters, Biden leads Trump 49 to 42 percentage points, respectively. This is essentially the same difference that was recorded in polls in July, showing that Biden’s ascendant political fortune wasn’t isolated to the summer.
These numbers are even more grim for Trump when you take into account the running mates. Kamala Harris has a better favorability rating than Mike Pence, coming in at 44 to 40, respectively. Pence’s history as governor of Indiana and his track record with LGBT rights have made him a disliked figure in the LGBT community.
Of course, polls aren’t ballots, and nothing is certain until we’ve tallied all the votes. However, historically, poll numbers have had a strong correlation to performance on Election Day.
These polling numbers likely stem from Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the Black Lives Matter movement. While “COVID symptoms” overtook “biosimilar Enbrel psoriasis” for Google searches of medical terms, Biden overtook Trump in the polls.
Meanwhile, Trump’s ill fortunes in the court of public approval could spell disaster for Senate Republicans, too. Even in a normal election year, Republicans would have cause for concern: they’re defending more seats in competitive races than Democrats are. Recent polling shows some areas that were toss-ups now “lean Democrat.”
Should Republicans lose the Senate but not the White House, that could still spell the end of the Trump Administration. With control of both houses, Democrats would have no trouble simply impeaching the president again and removing him from office.
