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Polling and statements from Republican leaders are suggesting that President Donald Trump’s rhetoric on mail-in ballots could cost him in the general election. President Trump has made repeated claims that mail-in voting is prone to more fraud than in-person votes. However, there is no formal evidence to back this claim. In fact, studies have shown that mail-in voting is no more or less prone to fraud than standard polling places.
However, by repeating the claims that mail-in voting is likely to be marred by fraud, the president could be depressing the vote that he needs most: his base. Trump’s claims about mail-in voting are roundly dismissed by his political opponents, and people who are unlikely to vote for the president have no issue with casting their ballot through the mail. The president’s base, however, is more likely to take his message to heart and avoid mail-in voting altogether.
This could cost the president votes, given the current health crisis.
Republican reelection campaigns have reported receiving resistance from registered Republican voters they’ve encouraged to vote by mail. Voters who follow the president’s advice closely characterize mail-in voting as “rigged” and, thus, largely refuse to use the method to send in their ballots. Campaign managers across the country are now worried that they may lose out on votes in large numbers due to this rhetoric.
In order to help shore up support for the practice, many GOP campaigns are choosing their words carefully. The president himself has drawn a distinction between “mail-in ballots” and “absentee ballots,” claiming that absentee ballots are safer. However, the two terms are used interchangeably to refer to the same practice. GOP campaigns have been using targeted mailers and Facebook ads using the “absentee” language to prevent the pushback from Trump’s base. Facebook ads appearing alongside arthritis pain relief ads are a common sight on many people’s Facebook feeds.
Some have suggested that the president is sowing the seeds to question the validity of the election results. Despite winning the presidency in 2016, Trump still alleged widespread voter fraud occurred. He alleged that this explains why he lost the popular vote by 3 million votes. However, there was no evidence of widespread voter fraud in the 2016 election.
It has been suggested that the president may do something similar in the 2020 election. Some political handicappers are predicting a major electoral victory for Democrats. Should Trump narrowly lose the election, he may attempt to call the results into question. Should the mail-in vote be as depressed as experts are predicting, the president’s supporters may agree.
