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In past elections, Arizona was known as a deeply red state that tended to vote for Republicans. In the 2020 election cycle, however, polling is showing that Arizona is much more competitive this year than in recent elections.
Researchers suspect that Californian transplants, immigrants from south of the border, and shifting attitudes in the suburbs are hurting Trump’s standing in the state.
This is evidenced by the deluge of campaign ad spending aimed at one Arizona county: Maricopa. The primarily white, suburban region outside of Phoenix has seen upwards of $20 million spent on campaign ads in recent weeks from Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s campaigns.
Due to Arizona’s desert geography, Maricopa County represents over half of likely voters in the state. In the end, the outcome in Maricopa might be an indicator of the outcome of Arizona, and maybe even the country as a whole.
Due to the unique challenges posed by the Electoral College, regional ad spending is a skill that presidential campaigns have to be adept at. Much like following stock trends, following the political headwinds across the country is as much art as science.
Maricopa County, for instance, went for Trump in 2016, and has been considered a conservative stronghold for decades. However, sensing the shifting demographics in the intervening four years, Biden has jumped on the opportunity to outspend the Trump campaign in the region.
This could be a microcosm of the election as a whole. Many states previously considered staunchly red are now becoming purple, according to polling research. States like Georgia and Texas are much more competitive now than in the past several decades’ of elections.
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Missouri remain competitive battlegrounds for both candidates. As such, the story in Maricopa County could be applied across the country.
Political scientists have also pointed to the Trump Administration as part of the reason Arizona is turning into a true battleground state. Donald Trump has been a controversial president. His policies and personality have delighted his diehard base while alienating moderate and liberal voters. It’s those moderate voters that are most visible in Maricopa County.
The primarily white, educated and moderate suburbs around Phoenix are just the type of area that went for Trump in 2016. They’re also just the type of area that is expected to be significantly more competitive in 2020, due to Trump’s conduct over the last four years.
His extreme personality may have alienated voters who would have otherwise preferred Trump’s conservative policies.
