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Ahead of what will likely be one of the most hotly-contested races in modern memory, former vice president Joe Biden still leads in the polls. However, after enjoying a double-digit lead across national polls, Biden has seen that dip to just seven percent.
The incumbent, Donald Trump, is a highly controversial president who has a dedicated base but is loathed by many Americans. Opinions on Trump are sharply divided: polls show voters either love him or hate him, with little in-between.
Biden, on the other hand, has a more moderate reception from his own party. Many younger voters and minority voters have a favorable view of Biden, but don’t support him as ardently as Trump’s base supports their preferred candidate. Some pundits have theorized that this is why Trump is closing the gap in national polling.
Trump’s polling woes began early in the year, in the immediate aftermath of the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. Many people have expressed frustration with the Trump Administration’s handling of the pandemic.
This is an area that Biden’s campaign has zeroed in on, running numerous ad spots grilling Trump over his handling of the pandemic.
The incumbent’s polling continued to slide in response to his handling of widespread civil unrest beginning with the death of George Floyd. Since George Floyd was killed by Minneapolis police, the Black Lives Matter movement has been more active than ever.
Trump’s dismissal of BLM and his insistence on a “law and order” rhetoric has soured many moderate voters on the Republican platform.
Following the Democratic and Republican conventions, however, Biden has lost some ground to Trump in national polling averages. A USA Today and Suffolk University poll released Wednesday showed that fifty percent of registered voters preferred Biden, to forty-three percent of voters that preferred Trump.
That poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Biden’s campaign takes some small comfort in this lead, but things won’t be easy for the Democratic candidate. There are still two months until the election, and a lot can change in that time.
Meanwhile, many pundits have noted the relative age of both candidates. Some online have joked that both Trump and Biden would have a hard time tweeting from office in 2021 because they’ll need finger arthritis relief. Both candidates, however, contend that they are in excellent health for their age and could easily make it through a four-year term.
