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According to a new poll from CNBC and Change Research, Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in six swing states. The upcoming presidential election is forecasted to be a close, bitter race, so this reporting is huge for the Biden campaign.
Many pundits have noted that Biden’s moderate profile, paired with Trump’s extreme personality, has had an effect on swing states. According to polls, many normally competitive states are now leaning Democrat.
Many GOP strategists hoped that Trump’s performance during the Republican National Convention would move the needle with moderate voters in swing states. However, the poll found that voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin had not changed their opinions on Trump or Biden in the intervening two weeks.
Related: Is Arizona a Swing State?
This means that Biden continues to enjoy a polling lead in those six critical states.
This news comes at a critical time for the Biden campaign. With less than two months before the election, things are feeling tense for both candidates.
Biden has faced criticism from some that he’s too old for the office of president. There have been jokes about rheumatoid arthritis and dementia. Biden, however, pushes back against these accusations, saying he is physically fit and mentally acute.
As Trump’s bizarre presidency has unfolded, he has gradually lost ground to his Democratic opponents in national polls. In 2018, a massive blue wave in the House of Representatives ushered in “The Squad,” a group of young, progressive women of color who have functioned as a scathing indictment of Republican governance.
Many pundits are now expecting a similar blue wave in 2020 that could see Democrats seizing control of the Senate and White House.
If the polling numbers translate into votes, it’s likely Biden could lock in the Electoral College. Remember, the popular vote doesn’t matter in the presidential election: it’s only the electors that decide who becomes president.
However, electors’ votes are decided based on who gets the most votes in their state. This has led to an odd form of campaigning where campaigns focus on states, instead of focusing on winning over the majority of Americans.
In the past, this has worked out in conservatives’ favor. In 2000, George Bush won the presidency despite losing the popular vote. The same thing happened in 2016, with Donald Trump winning the White House despite losing the popular vote.
As such, conservatives have lost the majority vote in four of the last five elections, despite holding the White House through three of those elections.
