Shutterstock
Even as the nation grapples with one of the largest civil rights movements in decades, the COVID-19 pandemic rages on. The pandemic has brought with it widespread closures and a one-in-a-lifetime economic downturn that threatens to upend the country as we know it. Against this backdrop, the sudden spike in COVID-19 cases in Arizona is troubling.
Many people had hoped the worst of the novel coronavirus pandemic was behind us. With warm weather, businesses reopening and optimism about the rest of the year, a sudden resurgence of the virus is an ugly wake-up call.
Dr. William Hanage, a Harvard University epidemiology expert, stated “I would go so far as to say alarming.” Dr. Hanage continued, “The only sort of crumb of comfort that I can find is that I think, in general, it’s sort of easier to social distance in Arizona than it is in some places.”
Arizona is a large state that is comprised primarily of desert landscapes, and is not very densely populated. The main population center, Phoenix, would face the biggest challenges by reinstating their lockdown orders. Over the past two weeks, Arizona’s hospitals have noticed ICU use is on the rise, and ventilators are nearing capacity.
In a letter to Arizona hospitals, the state’s health directors urged them to activate their emergency plans. This hasn’t led to every state official making similar proclamations, however. The state’s governor, Doug Ducey, has stated that this spike in cases is to be expected.
Ducey, along with Arizona Department of Health Services head Dr. Cara Christ, argued that increased testing is the reason for the increase in active case numbers. However, experts disagree with Ducey and Christ’s judgement, stating the spike represents more than better testing.
This is because there have been corresponding increases in hospitalizations, which wouldn’t reflect increased testing. Digital health records show the cases increasing at a rate that mirrors the hospitalizations, suggesting a real surge in the disease.
Dr. Kasey Ernst, an infectious disease expert at the University of Arizona, explained the severity of the situation. “If we continue on this trajectory and it is not just due to one or two localized outbreaks, then we may need to gear up for increasing action. The director of ADHS has declared all hospitals should activate their emergency plans. That should tell us all something.”
Arizona’s stay-at-home order expired on May 15. Since then, the state has been gradually returning from the lockdown status. People have been happily returning to some semblance of normal. However, this may not last long.
